Modern cycling is defined by dominant riders. Extraordinary athletes capable of pulling off the impossible, crushing almost any race they enter. What makes Milano-Sanremo so fascinating, however, is that, by design and by nature, it is incredibly hard to dominate. The Classicissima is a rare exception among the biggest races on the calendar: while many are decided early, this remains the most unpredictable of them all.
Even so, the undeniable favourites for Milano-Sanremo 2026 are the same riders who dominate elsewhere: Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates XRG) and defending champion Mathieu Van der Poel (Alpecin Deceuninck). Recent editions have shown that winning here requires not only extraordinary legs and strength, but also imagination and perfect timing. They are the strongest, there is little doubt about that, but in this race that is often not enough.
The Slovenian will begin his sixth assault on the Classicissima, a race that can claim to be one of the very few to have repeatedly resisted the Cannibal of modern cycling. Last year he turned the Cipressa into something resembling an Alpine climb, yet it still was not enough to win, even if it did rewrite the script of the race. By his own admission, he will keep coming back until he succeeds.
Van der Poel, on the other hand, arrives with the calm of someone who has already won it twice, knowing that anything more would simply be a bonus. The form he has shown from Omloop Het Nieuwsblad to Tirreno Adriatico is intimidating, and wherever Pogačar decides to move, expect him to be right there, glued to his wheel. Unlike Tadej, the Dutchman knows he can also win from a reduced sprint.
The supporting cards of both teams should not be overlooked either. Isaac Del Toro (UAE Team Emirates XRG) is one of the most intriguing unknowns: will Pogačar use him as a final lead-out option or as a tactical weapon to force Van der Poel’s hand? The world cyclocross champion, meanwhile, can rely on Jasper Philipsen, ready to be launched if things come down to a sprint on Via Roma, just as successfully seen in 2024.
Pogačar’s presence may discourage pure sprinters, but it gives hope to those who want the race to be as hard as possible. Whether on the Cipressa or the Poggio, several riders will be willing to go deep into the red just to stay with the decisive move. Among them are Tom Pidcock (Q36.5 Pro Cycling Team), brilliant at Milano-Torino and perfectly suited to the descents, Wout Van Aert (Visma Lease a Bike), still searching for top form but a winner here in 2020, and Filippo Ganna (Ineos Grenadiers), who after two second places has only the top step in mind.
Among the climbers hoping for another shake-up on the Cipressa are Romain Grégoire (Groupama FDJ), one of the last to hold Pogačar’s wheel last year, Giulio Ciccone (Lidl Trek), Matteo Jorgenson (Visma Lease a Bike), Primož Roglič and Giulio Pellizzari (Red Bull Bora hansgrohe), and Andrea Vendrame (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale).
There are also former winners who may no longer have their peak legs but will look to use experience, perhaps in support roles. Everyone remembers Matej Mohorič’s daring descent of the Poggio in 2022, Jasper Stuyven’s late move in 2021, Michał Kwiatkowski’s photo-finish sprint in 2017 against Sagan and Julian Alaphilippe, who redeemed himself with victory in 2019, as well as John Degenkolb’s bunch sprint win. From Pavia to Sanremo, between memories and new ambitions, they will all be in the mix again.
The expected duel between Pogačar and Van der Poel could also produce a more tactical race, which means the sprinters cannot be ruled out. Among them is rising talent Paul Magnier (Soudal Quick Step), as well as Tobias Lund Andresen (Decathlon CMA CGM), stage winner at Tirreno Adriatico, Matteo Trentin (Tudor), Luke Lamperti (Soudal Quick Step), stage winner at Paris Nice, Bryan Coquard (Cofidis), Mike Teunissen (XDS Astana), Biniam Girmay (Intermarché Wanty) and Giovanni Lonardi (Polti VisitMalta).
A wild card? Jonas Abrahamsen (Uno X Mobility). If there is a move to be made, the Norwegian will not hesitate. And speaking of Scandinavians, Mads Pedersen (Lidl Trek) also returns to the peloton after a fractured wrist and collarbone. He may not yet be at his best, but underestimating him would be a mistake.
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